Assessing Climate Change In Kenya

With the recent surge in floods and droughts, and the constantly shifting weather patterns witnessed throughout the country; it’s easy to conclude that climate change is at work here. But, does historical data back this assertion?

Definitions & Background

Climate is the average weather pattern in a given location over a long period of time, usually 30 years.¹

Climate change is “a long-term shift in global or regional climate patterns”.² It usually occurs naturally and gradually, but has been immensely accelerated by human activities such as deforestation and the use of fossil fuels.

Climate change is mainly characterised by an increase in global temperatures, commonly referred to as Global Warming.

This article investigates the existence (and degree) of climate change in Kenya by analysing two key indicators: temperature and precipitation. The data used in this exercise is obtained from the World Bank Group’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

NOTE: Regional information in the data is given in terms of Provinces, which have been subsequently replaced by Counties.³

Things Are Heating Up

The average annual temperature has risen from a low of 22.54°C in 1917 to 25.43°C in 2020; having peaked at 25.56°C in 2009 and 2016.

A 3°C rise in temperatures is a serious cause for concern. Furthermore, it is projected that Kenya’s average annual temperature could reach 26.57°C by 2059.⁴

All regions experience higher temperatures:

The Central region has been the coolest (avg. 15.9°C); the North Eastern region the hottest (avg. 27.3°C).

Rain… How unpredictable you’ve become

Precipitation in Kenya predominantly occurs in form of rain, mostly expected around March - May (long rains) and October - December (short rains).

However, in recent years, both the onset and duration of the rainy seasons have varied greatly.

The lowest annual rainfall was recorded in 1949 (452.54mm), while the most was recorded in 2019 (1,100.16mm).

Annual rainfall has increased in the Nyanza, Rift Valley and Western regions; but decreased in the rest of the regions.

The Western region experienced the most rain (avg. 1,506.3mm), whereas the North-Eastern region has been the driest (avg. 432.3mm).

Conclusion

Our assertion that Kenya’s climate has changed seems to hold true. Monthly average temperatures are consistently higher in 1991-2020 than in 1961-1990, and the seasonal rain cycle fluctuates.

References